This is chapter 4 of 5 of our series “Why we need the ‘Europeans of the Planet’, published each Friday”. Chapter 3: “The Psychology of Inaction — why we fail to respond” was published last Friday.
For much of the modern era, particularly in the industrialised West, the idea of progress functioned almost as a secular article of faith. Each generation expected to enjoy greater prosperity, better health, wider opportunities, and more personal freedom than the one before it. The hardships endured by parents were justified by the belief that their children would inherit a better world. Economic growth, scientific advancement, and social reform appeared to reinforce this expectation decade after decade. [19]
Today, however, signs of doubt are becoming increasingly visible. While aggregate indicators such as life expectancy, educational attainment, and technological capability remain historically favourable, many younger people experience a reality that feels markedly different from the optimism that accompanied previous generations. In numerous countries, housing has become less affordable, public debt has increased, career paths appear less predictable, and the costs of education, healthcare, and family formation weigh heavily on those entering adulthood. [20]
More importantly, confidence in the future itself appears to be eroding. Surveys across many developed societies suggest that younger generations are less certain that they will achieve a higher standard of living than their parents, and less confident that their children will in turn enjoy greater opportunities than they do. The assumption of continuous progress—once a defining characteristic of modern societies—can no longer be taken for granted.
This does not necessarily mean that decline has already arrived. Measured by many objective indicators, contemporary societies remain extraordinarily successful. Yet political stability depends not only on present conditions but also on future expectations. People are often willing to endure hardship when they believe improvement lies ahead. Conversely, even prosperous societies can become restless when confidence in tomorrow begins to weaken. [21]
The causes of this growing unease remain contested. Some point to economic inequality, stagnant wages, housing shortages, or demographic pressures. Others emphasise technological disruption, cultural fragmentation, declining trust in institutions, or the perception that political systems have become incapable of addressing long-term challenges. Still others argue that social media and the modern information environment amplify anxiety and pessimism beyond what objective conditions warrant.
Whatever the explanation, a common sentiment appears to be emerging across much of the developed world: a sense that something important has become misaligned. The institutions that once generated confidence and cohesion no longer inspire the same trust. The promise that tomorrow will naturally be better than today appears less convincing than it once did.
William Shakespeare captured a similar mood in Hamlet through the famous observation that "something is rotten in the state of Denmark". The phrase has endured because it describes a condition that many societies occasionally encounter: a widespread intuition that existing arrangements are no longer functioning as intended, even when the precise causes remain difficult to identify. [22]
Such periods of uncertainty are not unprecedented. History repeatedly demonstrates that eras of rapid technological, economic, and social transformation often produce both extraordinary opportunities and profound disorientation. The Industrial Revolution, the emergence of mass democracy, and the transition from agrarian to urban societies all generated similar mixtures of optimism and anxiety.
More than sixty years ago, Bob Dylan captured precisely this sensation of living through a moment of transition when he wrote “The Times They Are A-Changin’.” The song's enduring appeal lies not in its political content but in its recognition that societies periodically reach moments when inherited assumptions cease to provide reliable guidance for the future. [23]
The crucial question, therefore, is not whether change is coming. Change is already here. The question is whether citizens will remain passive observers of that transformation or become active participants in shaping its direction. If confidence in automatic progress is fading, then perhaps the responsibility for progress can no longer be delegated to history, markets, governments, or technological innovation alone. It must once again become a conscious political project.
You were reading Part 4 of 5: “The End of Automatic Progress? — why people increasingly sense that something is wrong”. This series will be continued next Friday with Part 5 of 5: From Observation to Action — why civic organisation becomes necessary”
Supporting Evidence
Declining Confidence in Upward Mobility
Research in Europe and North America has found increasing concern that younger generations may not enjoy the same economic advancement as their parents.
Frequently cited factors include:
- housing affordability,
- precarious employment,
- wealth concentration,
- demographic pressures.
The "Great Stagnation" Debate
Economists such as Tyler Cowen [24] have argued that productivity growth and transformative innovation may have slowed compared with earlier periods.
While controversial, the thesis has influenced discussions about declining expectations.
Trust in Institutions
Many democracies have experienced declining trust in:
- political parties,
- governments,
- media,
- corporations.
Political scientists increasingly regard this as one of the defining challenges of the twenty-first century.
Rising Anxiety Among Younger Generations
Multiple surveys indicate elevated levels of concern among younger people regarding:
- economic security,
- climate change,
- housing,
- geopolitical instability,
- social cohesion.
The existence of these concerns is well documented, even though their causes remain debated.
Important Counter-Voices
1. The Progress School
Thinkers such as Steven Pinker [25] and Johan Norberg argue that pessimism is largely disconnected from reality.
They point out that:
- life expectancy remains high,
- poverty remains low,
- education remains widespread,
- technological possibilities continue to expand.
From this perspective, the crisis may be one of perception rather than reality.
2. The Generational Myth Argument
Some historians note that nearly every generation believes it faces unprecedented challenges.
Complaints about social decline can be traced back to ancient Greece, ancient Rome, and virtually every subsequent era.
The feeling that society is deteriorating is therefore not itself evidence that it actually is.
3. The Adaptation Thesis
Some sociologists argue that rising expectations naturally create dissatisfaction.
As societies become wealthier, people compare themselves less with the past and more with an imagined future.
As a result, prosperity and discontent can grow simultaneously.
[20] Easterlin, R. A. (1974). Does economic growth improve the human lot? Some empirical evidence. In P. A. David & M. W. Reder (Eds.), Nations and households in economic growth (pp. 89–125). Academic Press.
- A classic contribution introducing what later became known as the Easterlin Paradox. Easterlin argues that rising income does not necessarily produce proportional increases in perceived well-being. The work remains foundational for understanding why prosperity and dissatisfaction may coexist.
[21] Putnam, R. D. (2020). The upswing: How America came together a century ago and how we can do it again. Simon & Schuster.
- Putnam documents long-term trends in social cohesion, civic participation, trust, and inequality. The work is particularly valuable for understanding how confidence in institutions and collective action can rise and fall over time.
[22] Putnam, R. D. (2020). The upswing: How America came together a century ago and how we can do it again. Simon & Schuster.
- Putnam documents long-term trends in social cohesion, civic participation, trust, and inequality. The work is particularly valuable for understanding how confidence in institutions
[23] Dylan, B. (1964). The times they are a-changin’ [Song]. On The Times They Are A-Changin’. Columbia Records.
- A defining cultural expression of social transformation during the 1960s. While not a scholarly source, the song remains a powerful symbol of periods in which established assumptions are challenged and societies experience profound change. Its enduring relevance lies in its articulation of historical transition and collective uncertainty.
[24] Cowen, T. (2011). The great stagnation: How America ate all the low-hanging fruit of modern history, got sick, and will (eventually) feel better. Dutton.
- Cowen argues that many of the most easily attainable sources of economic growth have already been exploited, leading to slower productivity gains and reduced expectations of future prosperity. The book has significantly influenced debates about declining optimism and economic dynamism.
[25] Pinker, S. (2018). Enlightenment now: The case for reason, science, humanism, and progress. Viking.
- Pinker presents extensive evidence that many objective measures of human well-being continue to improve. The work challenges claims that contemporary societies are entering an era of inevitable decline and offers one of the strongest counterarguments to civilisational pessimism.
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